Another misleading poll

I had to read this one a couple times just to figure out exactly how they got the results they claimed in the article's title, What Head of Steam? Economy Is Worsening Under Bush, Most Americans Say. Dramatic statement but not surprising as people have been down on fairly robust economy but the poll data doesn't necessarily say that. Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy was robust by almost every measure last year, prompting President George W. Bush to say that 2006 began ``with a full head of steam'' and he will make things even better. Most Americans don't buy it. By a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll this week. About six out of 10 say the economy will stay the same in the next six months, while more say it will worsen than say it will improve. And by 47 percent to 22 percent, the public says the country is worse off economically since Bush became president. The disconnect between the poll numbers and the economic data reflects anxiety about structural changes in the economy, said Vin Weber, a Washington lobbyist and former Republican representative in Congress who is close to the Bush administration. ``Americans have seen their basic conceptual view of the American economy shattered, and it hasn't been replaced by anything,'' he says. Weber says mass job cuts announced by Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. and bankruptcies and pension freezes at major airlines are among the reasons Americans are insecure even as gross domestic product is growing. OK so 59% "disapprove" of Bush's handling of the economy. That's fine; I disagree, but hey, that's me. Now, "about six out of 10" say economy will stay the same. Here's where it gets hazy... "More say it will worsen than say it will improve" Oookaaaay. Let's put in some numbers: 3 to 1, worsen to improve for the sake of our argument. Now let's rephrase the results, about 7 out of 10 say economy will stay the same or improve. Doesn't sound so bad now. And finally, "47 percent to 22 percent, the public says the country is worse off economically since Bush became president." Rephrase: 53% say economy is better or the same since Bush came into office. And with the rephrase above, about 53% think the economy, that 70% think is the same or better since Bush came into office, will stay the same or improve. What's that amount to? A whole lot of gobbledygook crap. It means nothing. It's all about how you phrase the results. That's why most polls are crap. I'll expand that to studies as well. Dennis Prager was discussing a recent number of studies touting the health benefits of wine in moderation. He was impressed enough that he tried to drink wine more regularly since he usually drinks alcohol in general very rarely. But is the wine health connection a causal or associative? He cited a new study that linked people who buy wine also tend to buy healthier foods: more fruits, veggies, low fat meats and cheeses, etc. than people who buy beer, who buy both beer and wine, or who don't buy alcohol at all. So does wine benefit as much as those studies thought or is the health of those people more reflective of a healthier lifestyle and that they happen to prefer wine with their healthier diet and lifestyle than those who drink beer or drink no alcohol at all? Studies and polls, while they can be useful don't often express the truths that they claim.