Thursday, July 27, 2006

Probably the best analysis/interpretation of the Israeli offensive to date

I'd like to say that it's mine, but that honor goes to The Belmont Club. And deservedly so... It's a two-parter: Pulp Fiction & Postscript. Here's a snippet...

Prestidigitation is defined as "skill in performing magic or conjuring tricks with the hands". From the very beginning the IDF has kept the Hezbollah guessing about its true intentions. Nasrallah made the cardinal mistake of projecting his own estimate by believing that Israel would respond to his abduction of IDF soldiers with a limited cross border raid of their own. The IDF responded by smashing his Beirut headquarters and fixing the Hezbollah main force in the south. Nasrallah, Iran and Syria made a second error in believing that Israel, perhaps reinforced by the diplomaic mummery which encouraged the illusion, would be forced to accept a ceasefire within a fortnight only to discover that neither the international force was forthcoming (no one had the troops to put on the ground) nor would the Bush administration waver in its support for Israel. In reality Israel has been forced to accept nothing.


Go read both posts...

UPDATE @ 7:46pm: For more excellent analysis, go see In from the Cold. I could link to a post of his everyday if I wanted to. It's that good...