Tuesday, October 10, 2006

North Korean nuke test a dud?

As more and more people analyze the effects of the explosion, the evidence seems to be piling up that this might not have been the show that was advertised... so to speak.

The North Koreans ought to ask for their money back.

The Age - Shock waves emanating from North Korea probably came from the explosion of a nuclear device, but one that did not achieve its full potential.

US intelligence officials and weapons experts believe the explosion produced about 3 per cent of the power of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki more than 60 years ago, raising questions about whether a larger device failed, or if Pyongyang was testing a component of a larger weapon.

The first article I cited yesterday mentioned this as well... The strength of the bomb that was measured from yesterday's North Korean test was one kiloton, maybe even less, and that's making for interesting spculation around the blogosphere.

The above cited article specualtes that it could be a component of a larger weapon, but not only offers no evidence to support that theory, it just threw that out there and forgets to even come back to it later in the article.

What is an obvious conclusion is that NoKo's scientists can still learn from a failed test, perhaps more than they would from a successful one. But the silver lining there could be that along with the failed missile launch back in July, NoKo could still be a ways away from having a nuclear warhead and the means to deliver it via ICBM.

But what is the window before they're ICBM warhead ready? Hot Air speculates about 18 months andd also mentions that this test, even if it failed, is a harsh reality check for China, Japan, and South Korea. We've seen China talk about jumping on board with sanctions, and Allah-pundit is sure Japan will re-arm itself. Immediately.

In from the Cold tries to tackle the trickier issue of potential military conflict with DPRK, and it's not a pretty picture. So the former spook gives 8 other alternatives to war, and it's more than simple saying, "sanctions." Check it out.

Maybe it's the optimist in me, but I've got to think this was a swift kick in the butt to the world to get in gear as far as dealing with NoKo, and a worldwide public shaming of Ping Pong Kim Jong. That's two big deal tests of his that failed. I just hope we can stop him before he gets one to work...

UPDATE @ 4:03pm: Winds of Change (via BlackFive) has an excellent post that makes the case that China's behind the curtain of DPRK's nuclear test and that the best and only deterrent is going to being nuclear proliferation in the region. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea all get nukes to protect themselves from NoKo and hold the ever growing China in check.

UPDATE @ 4:46pm: Captain's Quarters has a guest post from Sen. McCain who has some strong words for the Democrats, thanking none other than Clinton for the mess that we're in now with NoKo. I originally stuck the ABC article on the Headlines sidebar, but when I saw he guest posted something similar at CQ, I thought an update was in order. Andd when you get the chance read the ABC article too. John really ought to try thinking before he opens his mouth otherwise we get these dumb comments on DPRK and a late show appearance calling for the death of George Bush. Politics as usual, huh Johnny boy?

UPDATE @ 4:58pm: Found this at GOP and the City and couldn't resist...

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